MLB home run predictions for Saturday, July 25

By Liam Tremblay — 25 July 2026 — 4 min read

Key Home Run Picks for July 25

Several players are highlighted for their potential to hit home runs during the July 25 MLB slate. Among them are CJ Abrams of the Washington Nationals, Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros, and Drake Baldwin of the Atlanta Braves. These players have shown recent power hitting, making them notable considerations for today’s games.

CJ Abrams, a shortstop for the Washington Nationals, has been in strong form, hitting four home runs in his last six games. He has also recorded a 22.2% barrel rate in the past week. Abrams is scheduled to face Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Mitch Bratt, who has a 9.10 FIP in his last two appearances and has allowed 3.52 HR/9. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.75 xERA in the last week.

Yordan Alvarez, a slugger for the Houston Astros, has hit three home runs in his last six games, with a .438 ISO. His recent performance includes a 21.1% barrel rate and a 52.6% hard-hit rate over the last week. Alvarez is set to play against Sean Burke of the Chicago White Sox, who has allowed 1.15 HR/9 this season against left-handed hitters. The White Sox bullpen has also allowed the same number of home runs in the last two weeks.

Drake Baldwin, a catcher for the Atlanta Braves, has emerged as a significant power hitter this season, with four home runs in his last seven games and a .429 ISO. In that period, 39% of his contact has been in the air, with 44.4% of those leaving the park. Baldwin will face Baltimore Orioles starter Brandon Young, who has allowed 1.13 HR/9 over the last month. However, Young has shown vulnerability to fly balls, with nearly 50% of his contact in his last 23.1 innings being in the air, and opponents averaging a 21.1 launch angle and 43.7% hard-hit rate. The Orioles bullpen has allowed 2.16 HR/9 in their last 16.1 innings.

Additional Players to Watch

Beyond these three, other players are also identified as potential home run threats on today’s 15-game MLB slate. These selections consider both player performance and the characteristics of the ballparks where games are being played.

Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks is playing at Nationals Park, which is noted as a prolific run-scoring environment. The park ranks fourth in the league, yielding 11.39 combined runs per game and averaging 3.18 home runs per contest. While Washington starter Carson Palmquist has a 0.79 HR/9 rate, the hitting conditions at the venue are considered favourable for Carroll.

Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies has a favourable matchup at home against Yankees starter Will Warren, who has a 1.27 HR/9 rate over 99 innings this season. Citizens Bank Park is a top-10 stadium for offensive production, averaging 9.62 runs per game and 2.73 home runs per matchup.

Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles is positioned for success against Braves starter Grant Holmes, who has surrendered 15 home runs over 92.3 innings, resulting in a 1.46 HR/9 rate. The game will be held at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which is a top-10 offensive venue this season, averaging 2.45 combined home runs per game.

Yordan Alvarez is mentioned again, despite facing White Sox starter Davis Martin, who has a 0.51 HR/9 rate over 106 innings. Rate Field is described as a lower-tier park for offensive output, ranking 19th with 8.69 runs and 2.23 home runs per game. However, Alvarez’s power is highlighted as a constant threat regardless of the venue.

Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers has a matchup against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea, who has allowed 12 home runs over 79.7 innings, with a 1.36 HR/9 rate. Citi Field is noted as being just outside the top 10 for offensive production, providing a solid environment for Ohtani.

Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins is also considered a strong option, facing Athletics starter Jacob Lopez. Lopez has a 1.66 HR/9 rate, which is among the highest for today’s starters. Target Field offers a middle-of-the-pack hitting environment with 9.22 runs per game, but the specific pitching matchup creates an opportunity for Buxton.

The games are scheduled throughout the day, with CJ Abrams’ game starting at 4:10 p.m. ET, Drake Baldwin’s game at 7:05 p.m. ET, and Yordan Alvarez’s game at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Source: covers.com