MLB predictions, odds, picks for Tuesday, July 21: This 3-way parlay returns over +800 - CBS Sports
Tuesday’s Major League Baseball schedule features several intriguing matchups with notable pitching advantages and player prop opportunities. Games include the Cincinnati Reds against the Seattle Mariners, the Miami Marlins facing the Houston Astros, and the Detroit Tigers playing the Chicago Cubs.
Key Matchups and Pitching Analysis
The game between the Reds and Mariners at T-Mobile Park highlights a significant pitching disparity. Cincinnati’s rookie right-hander, Chase Burns, has compiled an 11-1 record with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts over 102.2 innings. His performance suggests a strong outing against Seattle’s veteran pitcher, Luis Castillo, who enters with a 3-8 record, a 4.93 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP over 87.2 innings. The Reds, despite a 45-54 overall record, are seen as a value play due to Burns’s form.
In the Marlins versus Astros contest, Miami, with a 52-49 overall record, appears to have an advantage on the mound. Tyler Phillips, a steady starter for the Marlins, has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP across 75 innings. He is set to face Houston’s Tatsuya Imai, who holds a 6.06 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 52 innings. The Marlins also boast a stronger overall statistical profile with a 4.05 team ERA compared to Houston’s 4.75 mark.
The Tigers and Cubs game presents another potential underdog opportunity. Detroit’s left-hander, Framber Valdez, has a 5-6 record with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 107.2 innings, with underlying metrics suggesting stronger performance than his record indicates. He will be up against Chicago’s David Peterson, who has struggled this season with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP across 82.1 innings. The Tigers have also been in strong form, with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games and a 2.10 team ERA during that period.
Player Prop Bets to Consider
Several player prop bets are drawing attention for Tuesday’s games. Bo Bichette of the New York Mets is a focus for 2+ Hits/Runs/RBI. Despite a challenging first season, Bichette has shown recent improvement with two two-hit games in his last two appearances and a low strikeout rate over his past 53 plate appearances. His matchup against Brandon Sproat, who has shown reverse splits against right-handed hitters, could be favourable.
Spencer Torkelson of the Detroit Tigers is another player highlighted for 2+ Hits/Runs/RBI. While his overall season performance has been modest, he has a career-best hard-hit rate and has performed well against left-handed pitchers, making his matchup against David Peterson appealing.
For pitchers, Chase Burns of the Cincinnati Reds is considered for 8+ Strikeouts. T-Mobile Park, where the Reds will play the Mariners, is noted as a pitcher-friendly stadium, particularly for strikeouts. Burns has a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 14.1% swinging-strike rate, and he has recorded at least eight strikeouts in four of his last nine starts.
These player prop bets focus on specific statistical outcomes for individual players, such as pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, home runs, total bases, RBIs, and stolen bases. The odds for these props use the standard American moneyline format.
The Reds are favoured on the moneyline at +107, the Marlins at +108, and the Tigers at +105.
Source: rotowire.com
