Canadian Natural Resources Limited, known as CNQ, is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter results for 2025 on March 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates earnings of 53 cents per share, with projected revenues reaching $6.6 billion.
Let’s explore the elements that may have impacted CNQ’s performance in the upcoming quarter. Prior to that, it is beneficial to review the company’s results from the previous quarter.
Q4 Earnings Announcement Date
Key Takeaways from CNQ’s Q3 Financial Results & Unexpected Trends
In the most recent quarter reported, the Calgary-based company specializing in oil and gas equipment and services saw its earnings surpass expectations, although they fell from 71 cents per share in the same quarter last year due to declining prices for oil and natural gas liquids alongside increasing costs. CNQ announced adjusted earnings per share of 62 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents. Total revenues reached $6.9 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.7 billion. The company has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times in the last four quarters, with one miss, resulting in an average surprise of 9.3%. This information is illustrated in the chart below:
Price and EPS Surprise for Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Q3 Financial Performance Review
Canadian Natural Resources Limited earnings surprise and stock price | Quote for Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Changes in CNQ’s Forecast Adjustments
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 has remained unchanged over the last month. This projected amount reflects a decline of 19.7% compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a decrease of 2.2% from the previous year.
Revenue Projections for Q4
As CNQ approaches its Q4 results, there are several key factors to evaluate.
Canadian Natural stands as one of the foremost independent energy firms, showcasing robust operational progress. In the third quarter, it achieved record production of approximately 1.6 million BOE/d, reflecting a 19% increase compared to the previous year. Coupled with industry-leading oil sands mining expenses around $21/bbl and thermal costs close to $10/bbl, the company is well-positioned to maintain strong cash flow even in a moderate pricing landscape. Recent strategic acquisitions, which include additional oil sands stakes and liquids-rich Duvernay and Montney properties, are already enhancing production volumes and free cash flow. Management previously noted that operations for the fourth quarter are proceeding as anticipated with high utilization rates, indicating stable production for the next quarter. A solid balance sheet and ample liquidity further mitigate financial risks and bolster ongoing shareholder returns.
From a bearish perspective, earnings are still highly influenced by commodity prices and significant oil differentials, which management anticipates will be in the $10-$13/bbl range but could expand if refinery maintenance or economic weaknesses arise. AECO gas prices continue to be weak, and increased turnaround activities in 2026, especially at Horizon, might impact short-term volumes and expenses. Although production growth is strong, the integration of acquisitions and the need for sustained higher capital expenditures could restrict additional margin growth.
Impact of Oil Prices on Earnings
What Can We Anticipate from Our Model Regarding CNQ Stock?
The established Zacks model does not definitively indicate an earnings beat for CNQ this time. The combination of a favorable Earnings ESP along with a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) enhances the likelihood of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, this situation does not apply here.
The Earnings ESP for CNQ: The Earnings ESP, which indicates the variance between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for this firm, stands at 0.00%. Discover the top stocks to purchase or sell prior to their earnings announcements using our Earnings ESP Filter.
CNQ’s Zacks Ranking: Currently, CNQ holds a Zacks Rank of #3. You can view the full list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks Worth Evaluating
Here are several companies from the alternative sector that you might want to explore, as they possess the ideal mix of factors to achieve an earnings surprise this quarter.
ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. SPRY boasts an Earnings ESP of +39.90% along with a Zacks Rank of 3. The earnings report for SPRY is set to be released on March 9.
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Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ): Complimentary Stock Evaluation Report
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This piece was first released by Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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